What’s Behind Holiday Season Porch Package Theft?

Just like sneaky elves, opportunistic thieves are busy during the holiday season, snagging packages straight from your front porch. As consumers and retailers have shifted increasingly towards home delivery, the frequency of package theft or “porch piracy” targeting home-delivered packages has increased dramatically, and the risk of online shoppers falling victim increases during the holiday season. 

Formal statistics surrounding package theft are lacking, it is a crime rarely reported to the police. While most victims report it solely to the shipping company or retailer they purchased from, there are a few law enforcement agencies that track package theft. For example, police in Denver, Colorado, maintain a dashboard on reported package thefts — as of mid-November 2025, package thefts in Denver are up by 31% from 2022, and arrests stemming from package thefts remain low, at a 2022-25 average of 2.6%. 

Package theft is inextricably linked to the rise of e-commerce. A report from Capital One shopping research found that online shopping represented 18% of total retail revenue in 2024 and the first half of 2025, peaking in December 2024 at a record 21% of total retail sales dollars. They report that e-commerce’s share of total retail revenue has grown at an average annual rate of 7.42% since 1995.

Surveys and studies by consumer interest groups have found varying statistics on the scope of package theft:

Package theft is a crime of opportunity associated with current delivery practices. The dramatic increase in deliveries has produced a broad acceptance of unattended and signatureless deliveries, offering little protection against theft. Corporate policies vary on who holds responsibility once a package is delivered, with some retailers offering refunds or replacements. However, compensation often becomes complicated with shifts in responsibility — when an item’s status changes from “in-transit” to “delivered.”  

Some companies feature proactive initiatives, such as in-garage or in-trunk delivery. These services significantly reduce opportunities for theft from unprotected areas but can add costs. Amazon also maintains drop-off lockers, self-service pickup locations where customers can receive packages stored securely. 

Research by Dr. Ben Stickle, a nationally recognized expert on package theft, working at Middle Tennessee State University, used video analysis of package thefts recorded by security cameras to study the criminal actions and steps involved in package theft, to observe the most promising ways to reduce package theft. 

According to Video Data Analysis and Crime Script Analysis, Stickle and his researchers found: 

Most frequently in observed video data, thieves stole one package. Medium-sized packages, measuring between 13 and 36 inches, had the highest number of thefts, followed by smaller packages. Larger packages represented only 12% of the stolen packages.  

The question everyone is asking is whether doorbell cameras deter package thieves? Since the research conducted by Stickle et al. utilized footage from doorbell cameras, these devices, while popular, do not significantly deter package theft.  

Concealing targets may be a strategy towards meaningful package theft mitigation. Visibility from the roadway and brand recognition are seemingly critical factors in package thefts. This suggests that from a consumer standpoint, asking for delivery at a side or rear door could conceal packages from street view.  

Similarly, obstructing packages from street view using plants, columns, or furniture may mitigate the likelihood of package theft, or placing an empty storage container on the porch to conceal packages, as video analysis suggested a low probability of package thieves searching patios if they do not view packages from the road. 

To minimize the amount of time a package is left on the porch, consumers expecting a delivery could arrange their schedules to be home for the delivery.  

The other most viable intervention against package theft is to remove the target. Use innovative solutions, such as in-garage or in-trunk delivery or secure lockers at a secondary location.  

Omnisend estimated that approximately 70% of thefts involved Amazon deliveries. Retailers and delivery companies likewise may consider the visibility of where they place packages and consider removing highly visible branding from their packages, as this seems to be a non-trivial force that attracts package theft. 

Retailers and delivery companies could also skew their hours to be more likely to deliver packages when residents are more likely to be home and knock or ring the doorbell to announce that a package has been dropped off.  

Package theft is a nascent crime opportunity for motivated offenders. There are potential policy changes from retailers, and logistics, and delivery companies that may curb the casual ubiquity of these offenses. However, there are also practices and environments that individual consumers can adopt to mitigate the likelihood of having their goods seized in brazen acts of porch piracy.